تعظيم سلام للقاضية المصرية نهى الزينى
أنتِ فخر لكل مصرى و مصرية
أنتِ فخر لكل مصرى و مصرية
November 25, 2005
November 18, 2005
Bitter Fruits of Economic Reform: Introduction
The argument of President Mubarak and his government against proceeding in political reform measures (or at least slowing down the process) has been that economic reform has to take the first and highest priority. I refuse this on two grounds. First, the economic measures that the government undertook do not have the mandate of the Egyptian people. Without mandate, the government is not accountable to its people. One can argue that is a very theoretical frame of governance. Yet, I always like to use the analogy of the client-contractor relationship. If you hire a construction contractor in your apartment or property, the binding agreement between you and the contractor is the legal contract which clearly states the scope of work required and the remuneration for it. If the contractor fails to fulfill his part of the bargain, you are entitled to withhold remuneration. As simple it is, the analogy is quite comparable to governance in well established democracies. The legal contract is the voting process that brings politician to power and governance given their proposed vision, platform, and plan. If politicians fail to execute their promises, they do not earn the citizens votes in the next round. In the Egyptian case, government has been taking measures that, in most of them, benefit the business men elite and its own officials at all levels. I would even argue that a substantial number of government policies did not benefit Egyptians on the contrary it made them worse off.
Which leads me to my other point; in addition to accountability, a democratic system has an embedded mechanism of uncovering and dealing with corruption. I would argue that corruption, “the abuse of public power in order to make private profit” (Transparency International), is the main blocking factor against Egyptians’ optimal use of their own resources. Its spread and severity have led to the situation where officials in public offices choose to their own benefit over the societal benefit. On the national level, government politicians are choosing their own and their oligarchy’s benefit over the overall benefit of the country. A quick example is high rate of illiteracy that Egypt has been plagued with it for decades. Any freshman in a school of economics knows that private rate of return on primary education is huge. It reached 40% in some developing country. It is higher than any rate of return on physical capital even with a very high risk premium. Yet, a serious and effective plan to deal with illiteracy has never been implemented or even initiated (other than the classical rhetoric). The proof is the nearly constant rate of illiteracy over the past decades. Not to mention that population growth has escalated during the seventies and the eighties (meaning that the number of illiterate people has actually increased). On the contrary, the government chose to invest in internet and cell phones infrastructure. I am not down playing the positive effects these have on the economy and private investment. My point is that the choice of policy is not to the benefit of the people but rather to the benefit of the oligarchy surrounding the governing elite. I would go the extent and claim that government benefits directly from illiteracy. It is much easier to manipulate masses that can not read or write than to gain the allegiance of people who can analyze and critic.
Even in its economic reform, the government has failed. Egyptians became poorer, inequality grew among them, and the whole economy is a deteriorating state. This is my introduction to a series of essays in which I will discuss the effects of the policies of economic reform that government adopted and claimed was a first-priority task over establishing a democracy in Egypt. First I will discuss poverty across the last twenty five years. Then, I will talk about the income distribution within the Egyptian society. And finally, I will present an overview of the state of the economy as a whole.
But first I have to pass my exams this semester! Please stay tuned!
Even in its economic reform, the government has failed. Egyptians became poorer, inequality grew among them, and the whole economy is a deteriorating state. This is my introduction to a series of essays in which I will discuss the effects of the policies of economic reform that government adopted and claimed was a first-priority task over establishing a democracy in Egypt. First I will discuss poverty across the last twenty five years. Then, I will talk about the income distribution within the Egyptian society. And finally, I will present an overview of the state of the economy as a whole.
But first I have to pass my exams this semester! Please stay tuned!
November 17, 2005
Conspiracy Theory
I wrote this post on Tuesday November 15th before the elections results came out. However, I did not have the time to proofread it and publish it. My conclusion remains the same. What happened in Nasr City constituency is clear evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood and the NDP struck a deal together. It was first announced that both Brotherhood candidates were the winners of the constituency two seats. This would have been a clear embarrassment to the Presidential institution since Nasr city is the constituency of the President himself. A back door agreement was reached to recount the votes. Surprisingly, one of the seats went to the ruling NDP! The website of the Muslim Brotherhood gives a detailing of the events that preceded the official results announcement in Nasr City. A 5 year old would never buy the published story. Kefaya website has a more credible account of the events of this night.
If leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood want to play dirty politics, that is fine. The whole system is corrupt; they might as well join the game. But, stay away from religion! Just do not preach virtue and religion in the morning while in the evening strike dirty deals of forging elections results.
Keep religion for mosques and churches and play dirties politics in the bathrooms.
If leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood want to play dirty politics, that is fine. The whole system is corrupt; they might as well join the game. But, stay away from religion! Just do not preach virtue and religion in the morning while in the evening strike dirty deals of forging elections results.
Keep religion for mosques and churches and play dirties politics in the bathrooms.
NDP or Muslim Brotherhood? Who deserves my vote?
November in Montréal is associated with grey skies, short days, and the first snow in the winter season. If I were in Cairo now, I would be faced with a similar grey and depressing atmosphere.
My constituency is the Heliopolis and Nasr City constituency. Today, if I were to vote, I would be faced with two options either the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) or the officially outlawed, yet quite active in the political and social scene, Muslim Brotherhood. This is the case in about one third of the voting choices that Egyptians are facing today in the re-run of the first phase of the parliamentary elections.
It is a choice between two types of misuse of powers. The NDP has been ruling Egypt since the mid-seventies. All its consecutive governments are tainted with the abuse of power and far-reaching corruption; not to mention ruling through oppression and confiscation of freedoms. I can go one naming examples and cases since President Sadat’s period up to the everyday corruption of the current government. However, this is not the matter at hand. My other choice, and the choice and overwhelming majority of Egyptians today, is choosing the use of faith to gain people’s allegiance; the abuse of religion. The Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized and most influential social force in the current political scene of Egypt. There is little that can be said in this debate. They have outperformed well established political parties such as El Wafd. Their ability to mobilize people is unchallenged by other parties even by the NDP. But why is that? Is it because they have a valid political platform? Is it because they have a committed and clear plan for economic reform? I argue not. Their website contains nothing except old-fashioned rhetoric and unrealistic goals to resurrect and establish the one “Muslim State” or the “United Muslim States.” Without going too much in the details of the philosophy of the Muslim Brotherhood, the end point is that it has found great acceptance among Egyptians; namely of course the Muslims. During the past decades, it penetrated the Egyptian society through providing several services that the government failed to provide; especially education and health services. It filled the political vacuum created by paralyzed opposition parties and the fierce hands of the regime that smashed any political force before it becomes a prospect. Among the masses of Christians in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is associated with men with beards, veiled women, and violence against them. A typical Christian man or woman does not know the difference between the different versions of political Islam that appeared on the Egyptian scene during the past fifty years. They are all violent! Even though the official position of the Muslim Brotherhood is guaranteeing equal civil rights and liberties, and duties for all citizens; few Christians know that and even if they know they are skeptical about it. I am sure that the scene during the campaigning period was quite frightening to Christians. Slogans of “Islam is the solution” were all over the streets of the Cairo and the cities of the first phase of the elections. Candidates stated boldly in their flyers that they are the Muslim Brotherhood candidates. (In a country where supposedly the rule law has the final say, one would not publicly announce that he or she belongs to an “outlawed” group!!). Clearly, this year’s elections have witnessed a relatively accepting attitude from the regime towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike the 2000 elections, Muslim Brotherhood key players were not arrested before the elections. On the contrary, just before the elections the group’s prominent spokesperson Essam El Erian was released after being detained since May.
How will most Egyptians choose if they were faced with such a choice? For Christians, the choice is easy and crystal clear: anything but a Muslim group. I received several emails calling for Christians to go to vote. Priests in churches have been calling for their congregation to cast their vote. Traditionally, the Egyptian Christian institution adopted the “play it safe” strategy: endorse the regime as long as they are giving us the bare minimum. Faced with a possibility of a substantial presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the parliament, tactics had to be changed and people were urged to cast their vote. Unlike the Pope when he endorsed Mubarak during the presidential elections, priests did not bother to endorse any candidates knowing that their congregation will never choose a Muslim Brotherhood candidate. It is overwhelmingly saddening that religious power is used to direct people a) politically b) to vote for a corrupted government; a government that is oppressing “equally” all its citizens Muslims and Christians! At the bright side of things, Christians have finally come out of a long enduring period of passiveness and lack of political participation in their own country. I know people, who rarely read the newspapers, made sure that their daily schedule today includes casting their vote. As for Muslims, the choice depends on where they stand. Liberals and moderates are faced with a dilemma; they might be loosing either way. Yet, in most of the cases, the choice is not based on a political platform rather than what the candidate can do or has done for his or her constituency. For conservatives, the choice is clear.
In any case, what is really saddening and rather worrying is religious affiliations direct political choices. This is a direct and viable threat to Egypt’s future and stability. It is indeed alarming. The fact that we are faced with this “choice” is solely due to all these long years of oppression, lack of political and civil freedoms, and the one-party system. And what makes the picture even gloomier is that the regime reached a win-win deal with the Brotherhood. The regime wanted to ensure that the masses that follow the Muslim Brotherhood would not vote against Mubarak in the presidential elections. The Brotherhood wanted more slack in order to gain more seats in the parliament; maybe enough seats to guarantee nominating a presidential candidate in the 2011 elections. The outcome of the deal was clear: the Brotherhood number one man Mahdi Akif did not call for boycotting the presidential election or even voting against Mubarak. And on the return, the Muslim brotherhood gained unprecedented appearance in the elections campaign.
Well, I have bad news for the Brotherhood. Although they might win a substantial amount of seats this time, it might cost them dearly next time. My guess is that Mubarak tolerated the Brotherhood this time not just to win his sixth term but also to make a point to the US administration: it is not yet the time for a full fledged political reform. Such reform will bring “islamists” to power; something the US might not be ready to tolerate in the biggest country in the Middle East and in the most influential Arabic country. The other piece of bad news is that opposition parties will eventually wake up from their long sleep and work on increasing their presence in the Egyptian street. For that I am really hopeful. But till then, I decline to vote.
My constituency is the Heliopolis and Nasr City constituency. Today, if I were to vote, I would be faced with two options either the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) or the officially outlawed, yet quite active in the political and social scene, Muslim Brotherhood. This is the case in about one third of the voting choices that Egyptians are facing today in the re-run of the first phase of the parliamentary elections.
It is a choice between two types of misuse of powers. The NDP has been ruling Egypt since the mid-seventies. All its consecutive governments are tainted with the abuse of power and far-reaching corruption; not to mention ruling through oppression and confiscation of freedoms. I can go one naming examples and cases since President Sadat’s period up to the everyday corruption of the current government. However, this is not the matter at hand. My other choice, and the choice and overwhelming majority of Egyptians today, is choosing the use of faith to gain people’s allegiance; the abuse of religion. The Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized and most influential social force in the current political scene of Egypt. There is little that can be said in this debate. They have outperformed well established political parties such as El Wafd. Their ability to mobilize people is unchallenged by other parties even by the NDP. But why is that? Is it because they have a valid political platform? Is it because they have a committed and clear plan for economic reform? I argue not. Their website contains nothing except old-fashioned rhetoric and unrealistic goals to resurrect and establish the one “Muslim State” or the “United Muslim States.” Without going too much in the details of the philosophy of the Muslim Brotherhood, the end point is that it has found great acceptance among Egyptians; namely of course the Muslims. During the past decades, it penetrated the Egyptian society through providing several services that the government failed to provide; especially education and health services. It filled the political vacuum created by paralyzed opposition parties and the fierce hands of the regime that smashed any political force before it becomes a prospect. Among the masses of Christians in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is associated with men with beards, veiled women, and violence against them. A typical Christian man or woman does not know the difference between the different versions of political Islam that appeared on the Egyptian scene during the past fifty years. They are all violent! Even though the official position of the Muslim Brotherhood is guaranteeing equal civil rights and liberties, and duties for all citizens; few Christians know that and even if they know they are skeptical about it. I am sure that the scene during the campaigning period was quite frightening to Christians. Slogans of “Islam is the solution” were all over the streets of the Cairo and the cities of the first phase of the elections. Candidates stated boldly in their flyers that they are the Muslim Brotherhood candidates. (In a country where supposedly the rule law has the final say, one would not publicly announce that he or she belongs to an “outlawed” group!!). Clearly, this year’s elections have witnessed a relatively accepting attitude from the regime towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike the 2000 elections, Muslim Brotherhood key players were not arrested before the elections. On the contrary, just before the elections the group’s prominent spokesperson Essam El Erian was released after being detained since May.
How will most Egyptians choose if they were faced with such a choice? For Christians, the choice is easy and crystal clear: anything but a Muslim group. I received several emails calling for Christians to go to vote. Priests in churches have been calling for their congregation to cast their vote. Traditionally, the Egyptian Christian institution adopted the “play it safe” strategy: endorse the regime as long as they are giving us the bare minimum. Faced with a possibility of a substantial presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the parliament, tactics had to be changed and people were urged to cast their vote. Unlike the Pope when he endorsed Mubarak during the presidential elections, priests did not bother to endorse any candidates knowing that their congregation will never choose a Muslim Brotherhood candidate. It is overwhelmingly saddening that religious power is used to direct people a) politically b) to vote for a corrupted government; a government that is oppressing “equally” all its citizens Muslims and Christians! At the bright side of things, Christians have finally come out of a long enduring period of passiveness and lack of political participation in their own country. I know people, who rarely read the newspapers, made sure that their daily schedule today includes casting their vote. As for Muslims, the choice depends on where they stand. Liberals and moderates are faced with a dilemma; they might be loosing either way. Yet, in most of the cases, the choice is not based on a political platform rather than what the candidate can do or has done for his or her constituency. For conservatives, the choice is clear.
In any case, what is really saddening and rather worrying is religious affiliations direct political choices. This is a direct and viable threat to Egypt’s future and stability. It is indeed alarming. The fact that we are faced with this “choice” is solely due to all these long years of oppression, lack of political and civil freedoms, and the one-party system. And what makes the picture even gloomier is that the regime reached a win-win deal with the Brotherhood. The regime wanted to ensure that the masses that follow the Muslim Brotherhood would not vote against Mubarak in the presidential elections. The Brotherhood wanted more slack in order to gain more seats in the parliament; maybe enough seats to guarantee nominating a presidential candidate in the 2011 elections. The outcome of the deal was clear: the Brotherhood number one man Mahdi Akif did not call for boycotting the presidential election or even voting against Mubarak. And on the return, the Muslim brotherhood gained unprecedented appearance in the elections campaign.
Well, I have bad news for the Brotherhood. Although they might win a substantial amount of seats this time, it might cost them dearly next time. My guess is that Mubarak tolerated the Brotherhood this time not just to win his sixth term but also to make a point to the US administration: it is not yet the time for a full fledged political reform. Such reform will bring “islamists” to power; something the US might not be ready to tolerate in the biggest country in the Middle East and in the most influential Arabic country. The other piece of bad news is that opposition parties will eventually wake up from their long sleep and work on increasing their presence in the Egyptian street. For that I am really hopeful. But till then, I decline to vote.
نص كلمة
عودة المستقلين الناجحين إلي الحزب الوطني عملية غير أخلاقية ومرفوضة تماما، وهي تزوير لإرادة الناخب الذي انتخب مرشحا مستقلا وليس حزبيا، وقبول الحزب الوطني لعودة المنشقين بعد نجاحهم تشجيع سافر علي النفاق والكذب والانتهازية، ونسألكم قراءة الفاتحة علي الأخلاق
أحمد رجب
الأخبار 17 نوفمبر 2005
الله ينور يا أستاذ أحمد
November 12, 2005
نفسى يا مصر
نفسى يا مصر أ صحى يوم ألاقيكى الحلم الي كلنا بنحلم بيه
نفسى يا مصر أحط ايدى على الجرح أداويه
حاسس أنى بعيد و مهزوم
نفسى يا مصر أحط ايدى على الجرح أداويه
حاسس أنى بعيد و مهزوم
November 4, 2005
يا حكومة يا كدابة
أعلن المستشــار ماهــر عبدالواحــد النائب العام ـ في تــصريحات خاصــة لـ محمد زايد مستشار رئيس التحرير ـ أن التحقيقات في أحداث الإسكندرية الأخيرة, كشفت عن مفاجأة مهمة, فقد تأكد أن المسرحية التي قيل إنها عرضت داخل كنيسة مارجرجس في منطقة محرم بك, وتضمنت إساءة للإسلام, لم يحدث أن عرضت أصلا, كما ثبت أنه لم يشهدها أحد, ولا استمع مواطن لإسطوانة الـC.D المدعاة.وقال إن التحقيقات أوضحت علي نحو قاطع أن الادعاءات المضللة هي التي أثارت حالة التجمهر والشغب وما ترتب عليها من أحداث مؤسفة.
الأهرام 04 نوفمبر 2005
الصفحة الاولى
أمال اللى شوفنا كلنا دا وهم؟؟! دا حتى يمكن مفيش كنيسة وهم نيسيوا يقولوا كدة
The government continues to lie to the Egyptian people. The General Prosecutor was quoted on the front page of the prominent Al Ahram newspaper (issue of November 4th, 2005) that the church did not produce a play in the first place and that there were no CD that contained such a play. It was all rumours that created the sad events two weeks ago. We will continue to deal with serious and delicate issues with our famous “ignore strategy”. There is no problem. We are all good.
And the worst part, that really hurts me and I am sure it hurts everyone of us, is that the government continues to treat us as stupid, brainless, and ignorant individuals who will believe everything that is told to them. The price is going to be very steep once of these days when all the built up anger and hatred is going to explode on the faces of all us.
For the those who are interested in seeing the play that never existed according to our government, follow this link.
الأهرام 04 نوفمبر 2005
الصفحة الاولى
أمال اللى شوفنا كلنا دا وهم؟؟! دا حتى يمكن مفيش كنيسة وهم نيسيوا يقولوا كدة
The government continues to lie to the Egyptian people. The General Prosecutor was quoted on the front page of the prominent Al Ahram newspaper (issue of November 4th, 2005) that the church did not produce a play in the first place and that there were no CD that contained such a play. It was all rumours that created the sad events two weeks ago. We will continue to deal with serious and delicate issues with our famous “ignore strategy”. There is no problem. We are all good.
And the worst part, that really hurts me and I am sure it hurts everyone of us, is that the government continues to treat us as stupid, brainless, and ignorant individuals who will believe everything that is told to them. The price is going to be very steep once of these days when all the built up anger and hatred is going to explode on the faces of all us.
For the those who are interested in seeing the play that never existed according to our government, follow this link.
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